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Discovery Stage 07 · Clinical Outcomes

90% of compounds that enter Phase I — never clear it

Without waiting for a CRO report or running an internal model only available at large pharma. NovoExpert-3 returns a calibrated clearance probability with SHAP explanations — so you know which risk factors to address before committing to the clinic.

“Predict Phase I clinical clearance probability for this candidate and explain the top risk factors.”

0.756AUROC
63Input features
11,952Training compounds
SHAPExplained

How it works

01

Submit a profiled candidate

Provide a SMILES with ADMET results from upstream stages. NovoExpert-3 uses 63 features — physicochemical, CYP, toxicity, Tox21, and composite scores — all already computed by the pipeline.

02

Calibrated prediction with explanations

Isotonic calibration ensures the probability is reliable, not just a raw model score. SHAP feature attribution identifies the top risk factors driving the prediction.

03

Competence-checked

Out-of-domain predictions are flagged automatically. If the compound falls outside the model's validated domain, you get a warning — not a false confidence.

Proof

NovoExpert-3: CatBoost classifier trained on TDC Trial Outcome Prediction dataset. 11,952 compounds. AUROC 0.756 in validated domains.

63 features: physicochemical (8), CYP inhibitor/substrate (8), toxicity (12), Tox21 NR (7), Tox21 SR (5), composite scores (3) — all computed by upstream ADMET pipeline.

Isotonic calibration. SHAP feature attribution. Competence check flags out-of-domain predictions.

Know before the clinic

Calibrated clearance probability. SHAP explained. Sign up and predict your first candidate.